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Nobody wins them all, buddy. Not even Buffet...

The tool shows what analysts and the company provide, it doesn't predict the future

whats MoS?

Yes, a 15 PE is considered a maximum PE that I am willing to pay for the average company, primarily because it represents a minimum earnings yield of 6.47%. In other words, I am not interested in investing in a company that grows at rates of 15% or lower that doesn’t at least offer me that minimum return from all of its current earnings. And yes, because of that, it also includes a minimum if you will, margin of safety at that level. And yes, for those reasons and others, I do consider it fair value at the same time. My point being that fair value does have a built-in margin of safety implied. In other words it’s a conservative valuation level that is both prudent and simultaneously empowers you to fully participate in the operating results of the company. However, it’s also important to add that it does not automatically imply a good rate of return. The P/E ratio (earnings yield) coupled with the earnings growth the company achieves will be the determinant of your future returns. Now with all that said, obviously valuations lower than a 15 P/E with the accompanying higher earnings yield provides higher and higher levels of safety. Hope that clarifies it for you, Chuck

Usually these lawsuits are settled after a long appeals process. A settlement of 10 bio plus and paid out over 5-10 years will hurt but won’t affect dividends in my opinion

Sad

only if they both dropped further

Their PE's are quite high for low growth staples

I generally agree with everything you said. However, it really does not speak to the principles of sound valuation (intrinsic value etc.) which I would argue are timeless. The bottom line that gives a company value is its ability to generate cash flow to the benefit of its shareholders. Therefore, the size of the future cash flows will be relative to the growth rate each respective business can achieve. Consequently, it all comes down to how fast and predictably companies are capable of growing. Those factors create a level of future cash flows that will be discounted back to the present value. In other words, those factors you mentioned do not change the reasonable or rational levels of valuation (appropriate multiples), but instead, my alter the ability to generate value (future cash flows).

growth estimates of 13.06% are high but valuation is much higher too high

most dangerous words in investing

Thanks for the kind words and the feedback. There are a lot of subscribers that need help understanding how to interpret tool and/or how to use it effectively. The real challenge with any educational format is providing information that relates to all levels, neophytes to advanced. Thank you for understanding, regards, Chuck

There is a difference between market value and intrinsic value. Also, this time it is different continue to be the most dangerous words in investing. Regards, Chuck

@@FASTgraphs That is probably true, but intrinsic value of PE 15 is just rounded number, because people like rounded numbers and it could be PE 16, 17 or 18. ChatGPT says that 50 year median is 17.5. People who bought SPY 30 years ago at PE 15 vs 17 would made just 0.4% annualy more. People who waited for SPY to be below PE 15 for average EPS of last years made zero, and still wait for entry point. Sometimes we need accept reality and work with cards we have in hands and not theoretical intrinsic value. So in my opinion, it should matter little 30 years from now, if we pay PE 15, 16 or 17 for SPY. EPS growth in next 3 decades will have 10x higher inpact on our returns. Also US companies tends to grow most of the years so PE 17 paid for SPY today should be PE 15 in just two or three years from now.

P.S. Me too a lot of times LOL

nonsense comment pure BS

We have plans to give basic more features. Nevertheless, we already give basic subscribers a lot of value. Thanks for the feedback. Regards, Chuck

Im premium member and yet I cannot use premium preset screener features like PEG and Current value, which shows percentage difference from blue and orange line, in my own screeners. And it is very frustrating to be honest.

@@Cap_management Coming soon already in development testing soon then release. Regards, Chuck

We have considered that, however, in truth the most important data is the most recent data. Nevertheless, you make some good points about lessons learned that could be forgotten. However, I have passed your suggestion on to the development team. So yes it is possible, but to be honest, we do have some priorities like ETF data and others in front of it. Regards, Chuck

@@FASTgraphs I love the upcoming ETF feature also. I would also like historical data, least for SPY or DJIA, back to 1929. FASTgraphs is like an X-ray machine for underlying business analysis. I'm certain that lessons could be extracted from the 1929 crash using FASTgraphs.

@@rosalieroku3818 You can buy 100 year DJIA chart poster. Just google it. Its printed and size is 34"x26". It includes 1929 and shows that DJIA's EPS turned probably negative during Great Depression. We never got close to this ever again.

Development team 😂 you mean your son?

@@ColdHardToronto NO I mean our extremely competent, talented and dedicated team. What a chicken s***t comment. Really says a lot about who you are.

thanks

Yes their is an estimate section

That is true. And every time SPY reached this kind of valuations, big sell off always occured soon after. On the other hand, SPY now turned into tech growth index and analysts expect 13% annual growth in next few years. Historical average is 6%, twenty year average is 7%.

He is doing what he likes doing:)

If I was as good as chuck ( picking stocks and making RUclips) I would learn golf too. Dude has time to play through.

Chuck owns the golf course. And the Pro Shop, and the concessions stand, and the service center for the golf carts.

@@deepcreed yeah you're, right chuck sells shovels and supplies for people to mine gold. He doesn't buy coke or Pepsi but sells high fructose corn syrup.

@@GSUS-fc6ss yes sir. bought Chuck's "shovels" a couple years ago. Very satisfied with how FastGraphs' features have grown! That "shovel" is almost a Bobcat. Thank you Chuck and team!

I believe that sound valuation is timeless. With that said, the market may act irrationally at times. But just as you suggested, sooner or later valuation will manifest. Thanks for the comment, Chuck

Market irrationality can last longer than you can remain solvent. ;)

@@shawnstanley4784 Not if you invest properly

We will probably never see stocks (indexes) cheap again in our lifetimes, unless something really dramatic happens, like US collapsing on their debts, when ponzi scheme of currency created by debt finally pops. And unless you are a market veteran with 40 years in the market, you never saw cheap market. Even the worst recession in 80 years in 2008, lowered PE of SPY to just 15.86x. In my humble opinion, main reason for 40 years of expensive stocks is change in retimerent laws in 80's, where retirement responsibility moved from companies to individials and their 401k and IRA plans. Almost nobody owned stocks in 80's and than suddenly almost everyone was forced to own stocks if they wanted to have a decent retirement. Than came boom of indexing and ever increasing demand for indexes like SPY and QQQ.

@@Cap_management I would be careful with those assumptions. Here is an excerpt from an article I wrote: " +Warren Buffett’s Sage Advice in 1994 In the Berkshire Hathaway 1994 annual report, Warren Buffett wrote something that had a major impact on me at the time, and it has continued to contribute to my general thinking about investing to this day. Consequently, I consider it one of my favorite Warren Buffett quotes, as well as one of the most important lessons he ever offered the general investing public. I’m going to present the entire quote in this article; however, I am going to break it down into shorter snippets in order to elaborate its important message. But before I do that, I offer this lament: How can people ignore the following aphorism to the point of not even considering its important lesson? The first sentence of this important Warren Buffett quote establishes its message: “We will continue to ignore political and economic forecasts which are an expensive distraction for many investors and businessmen.” With his first sentence, Warren Buffett is telling us that he considers politics and economic forecasts an expensive distraction. In other words, he is in effect imploring us, as will become more evident later, to focus precisely on what we own, rather than generalities that may or may not impact us in the long run. The point I am attempting to make here is a simple one. Routinely, I talk to many people that can tell me in precise detail not only what the politicians in the United States are arguing about, but also what’s going on in politics in other nations all over the world. They get this information from the daily bombarding of negative and scary headlines offered by the mass media. Yet ironically, if I asked them questions about their precise holdings, they cannot answer them. For example, if I asked them whether the companies that they own had a good quarterly earnings report, or how many of their companies raised their dividends or announced stock buybacks, et cetera, they usually have no clue. In other words, I believe investors obsess about things that although scary, do not have a direct long-term impact on their specific portfolios, but only their short-term attitudes about them. The next line in the Warren Buffett quote speaks to my point: “Thirty years ago, no one could have foreseen the huge expansion of the Vietnam War, wage and price controls, two oil shocks, the resignation of a president, the dissolution of the Soviet Union, a one-day drop in the Dow of 508 points, or treasury bill yields fluctuating between 2.8% and 17.4%.” What these important words tell us is that with investing, there is always something to worry about, keep in mind these words were written in 1994. However, perhaps the most important lesson that this, my favorite Warren Buffett quote can teach us, is found in the next phrase as follows: “But surprise-none of these blockbuster events may even the slightest dent in Ben Graham’s investment principles. Nor did they render unsound the negotiated purchases of fine businesses at sensible prices.” Here Mr. Buffett is telling us that the prospects and rewards of owning good businesses are often independent of the general political and economic environment we find ourselves in. He is also speaking to the importance of investing in good businesses at sound valuations. Finally, we believe he is telling us that it’s more important for us to focus precisely on what we own, because this is where our true long-term rewards or losses will come from. The final three sentences in this profound Warren Buffett advice are most relevant to the purpose of this article: “Imagine the cost to us, if we had let a fear of unknowns cause us to defer or alter the deployment of capital. Indeed, we have usually made our best purchases when apprehensions about some macro event were at a peak. Fear is the foe of the faddist, but the friend of the fundamentalist.” Once again, I believe Mr. Buffett is advising us to focus on our precise holdings and their unique fundamental strengths and worry less about what’s going on in more general terms. An old Wall Street adage summarizes my point: “Wall Street climbs a wall of worry.” Of course, the most important lesson here is not to let fear overcome reason. As promised, what follows is the Warren Buffett quote in its entirety: “We will continue to ignore political and economic forecasts which are an expensive distraction for many investors and businessmen. Thirty years ago, no one could have foreseen the huge expansion of the Vietnam War, wage and price controls, two oil shocks, the resignation of a president, the dissolution of the Soviet Union, a one-day drop in the Dow of 508 points, or treasury bill yields fluctuating between 2.8% and 17.4%. But surprise-none of these blockbuster events made even the slightest dent in Ben Graham’s investment principles. Nor did they render unsound the negotiated purchases of fine businesses at sensible prices. Imagine the cost to us, if we had let a fear of unknowns cause us to defer or alter the deployment of capital. Indeed, we have usually made our best purchases when apprehensions about some macro event were at a peak. Fear is the foe of the faddist, but the friend of the fundamentalist.” Regards, Chuck